Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 20 March 2026
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column, Founded 1932
Boots on the island
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – Odds are that President Donald Trump is going to order an assault on Kharg Island through which 90 percent of Iranian oil transits. Why? The president needs an exit strategy, and Kharg Island, sitting isolated 15 miles off Iran’s coast at the northern end of the Persian Gulf, is an easily attainable target offering the U.S. a bargaining chip in the war.
It might provide options. Occupation of the island could force Iran to negotiate, at least until alternate routes for its oil shipments are developed. Those negotiations could entail payments to the U.S. for use of the island’s deep-water port, or an agreement to allow inspections of Iran’s nuclear sites in exchange for a return of the island, or an accession to U.S. demands for the distribution of oil, as occurred following the U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
Most significantly, from Trump’s point of view, is that the occupation of such a strategically and economically valuable piece of Iranian real estate would offer the only tangible benefit to be derived from the war.
We know that 2,500 Marines have been sent to the Gulf either as a bluff or, more likely, for deployment because no other objective use is apparent. However, if only a handful of Iranian soldiers remain on the island, they might be capable of inflicting one to several dozen Marine casualties, and the American public has almost spoken with one voice in opposition to boots on the ground, even if that ground is a barely defended island.
An unlikely, but plausible, additional objective would be the shoreline adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz. This would require substantially more troops because it is on the Iranian mainland, an area certain to be heavily defended, causing U.S. casualties to be high. The purpose would apparently be to aid in securing the strait, but the actual reason would be to force a large-scale Iranian counterattack, which U.S. and Israeli air power would destroy, not only giving Trump a victory but possibly prompting a revolt among Iranian people who could take advantage of a weakened Revolutionary Guard.
In reality, there are probably insufficient U.S. and Israeli forces in the region to conduct such an operation, and the American public would be furious. Even so, this unlikely scenario is presented because Trump has been pursuing the war in spite of public or world opinion, and he has a tendency to double down when things go awry.
In the end, the far more probable Kharg operation could run into a different problem. Iran, unable to counter the U.S.-Israeli offensive militarily, is waging an economic war, striking Gulf State oil infrastructure and blockading the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and mines, causing oil prices to soar, stock markets to crash, and interest rates to rise. If this continues, economic warfare may prove to trump Trump’s military adventure.
 
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
© 2026 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc
Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND