Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 12 March 2026
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column, Founded 1932
Trump’s War
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – At the onset of World War I, British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey sadly proclaimed, “The lamps are going out all over Europe,” a sentiment reiterated by Sir Winston Churchill’s “The Lights Are Going Out” speech a year before the commencement of World War II. But the lights are not going out in Iran. They are not going out because war has not come to the Iranian civilian populace, its economic centers, or its oil infrastructure (Israel struck Iranian oil refineries and was quickly admonished by the U.S.).
Donald Trump describes the conflict with Iran as an “excursion,” but it will likely be remembered in history as Trump’s War because it was the most singularly decided war in American history. Other than Israel, no ally was consulted. No Cabinet member advocated it, and Vice President J.D. Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine either opposed it or warned of serious consequences that could ensue.
Congressional bipartisan leaders, known as the Group of Eight, were not consulted in advance; they were simply informed just prior to the launching of the attack by U.S. and Israeli missiles and planes.
Under 18 U.S. Code 1116 – Murder or manslaughter of foreign officials, it is illegal for the United States to participate in the assassination of a foreign official, so Israel was tasked with eliminating Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the political and military leaders of his regime, a regime that is the primary impetus for anti-U.S., Israeli, and NATO terrorism. And if the “excursion” had ended with their demise, the operation might have been lauded in the West. But it did not end there.
The air campaign ramped up, and multiple rationalizations substituting for objectives were voiced. At first, the president claimed the goal was decapitation, but that being illegal, substitute claims followed in subsequent days. Cabinet members said the objective was to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, and when it was revealed that could only be accomplished with boots on the ground, they switched to Iran’s irrelevant navy and its potent missile program, which they note has been 90 percent neutralized. But this is a formula for an unwinnable war of attrition fought until the enemy runs out of bullets, i.e., missiles and drones, which are replaceable by Russia and China if not immediately by domestic production.
So, how will this end? First, the military scenario:
If the new Iranian leadership miraculously agrees to accede to Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender and dismantles its production and imports of missile and drone arsenals and allows foreign inspectors to confirm the end of its nuclear weapons program, Pres. Trump will claim victory. If not, he will claim victory anyway, cease the air operations, and pull the 5th Fleet out of the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman.
The Iranians, too, will claim victory because their theocratic dictatorship will have survived under new leadership.
How will the world see this? One man started and ended the war without an objective – unless the Saturday Night Live view of diversion from the Epstein Scandal is accepted.
From a military perspective, Iran’s defenses and nuclear program have been degraded, but can be reconstituted, and its regime has remained intact. Iran will have won. And if China were to have provided Iran with hypersonic missiles that damaged or sank a U.S. Navy vessel, China’s Navy would find itself on par or ahead of the U.S. Navy.
Next, the geo-political scenario: Support for Trump will diminish, even among his base as gas prices jump and 60 percent of the American public opposes the war. U.S. allies, already alienated by Trump’s tariffs and insults, will drift further away. China will revel in the result.
Finally, the economic scenario: Iran attacked its Persian Gulf neighbor’s oil fields and refineries, though the new regime says otherwise, and closed the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 percent of the world’s oil is shipped. The result has been a large spike in oil prices, a clear benefit to Iran and its friend, Russia, which was facing financial problems emanating from its war against Ukraine. Further, sanctions against Russian oil exports have also been temporarily ended by Trump. The Strait will reopen, but the damage done to the Gulf States’ oil infrastructure will take time to repair. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil revenue will more than replace its losses. Most of its oil is exported to China, but China is the leader in alternative energy, such as wind and solar, and can sustain the disruption. In any event, China will offset oil price hikes with massive exports of weaponry to Iran.
The Objective is the first of the Principles of War. Iran has objectives, Russia has objectives. China has objectives. Only the United States lacks an attainable objective. This will be the war started and lost by Pres. Trump, who said it will end when he “feels” he has won. In other words, Trump’s War will end when he declares victory and quits.
 
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
© 2026 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc
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END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND