IMMEDIATE RELEASE 16 August 2025WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUNDToday’s Events in Historical PerspectiveAmerica’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932The Zelenskyy optionsBy Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift WASHINGTON – In the wake of President Donald Trump’s brief meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is returning to the United States on Monday in the company of one or more European leaders. Why?Zelenskyy has vowed not to give up land to Russia, at least not land Russia has failed to take on the battlefield. But Putin apparently has demanded the surrender of the 30 percent of the Donbas region still under Ukrainian control, and Trump apparently has agreed. Further, Trump backed away from his and Zelenskyy’s demand for a ceasefire, opting instead for a comprehensive peace agreement. Finally, Putin has not ruled out a European peace-keeping force, but this is highly unlikely because it would be tantamount to Ukraine coming under NATO’s umbrella, an event Putin has said will never happen.All this is the backdrop for the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, a meeting that may turn out no better than their previous Oval Office encounter. Here are some possible scenarios:1. Ukraine’s Army is faring poorly and may be on the verge of abandoning the Donbas and more in an effort to shorten its frontline. In this event, Zelenskyy will be forced to save what he can and accept whatever terms are offered.2. Ukraine’s Army is on the verge of collapse, and Putin only met Trump to neutralize the United States and buy time for his army to complete the conquest of Ukraine.3. Ukraine’s Army is holding its own, trading land for high Russian casualties, in which event Zelenskyy will reject the peace offer and face Trump’s wrath – once again.4. Trump threatens to withhold critical intelligence sharing as well as munitions and equipment, which he said were going to be sold to NATO allies for delivery to Ukraine. This is where the European leaders accompanying Zelenskyy will weigh in, creating a possible fracture in the NATO alliance, an alliance Trump has already threatened to weaken by pulling a significant portion of U.S. troops out of Europe. In this event, Ukraine will become wholly dependent upon Europe, and Europe will become less dependent upon the United States. Poland, especially, might be inclined to immediately send troops to Ukraine in at least a rear-area support capacity, and Russia would be faced with an increasing NATO involvement.5. As in its previous Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensives, Ukraine employs the military principles of “mass” and “economy of force” to muster sufficient strength for a strike on a vulnerable Russian position, which, if successful, will change the calculus of the war in Ukraine’s favor. In this scenario, the only purpose for Zelenskyy’s trip to Washington would be to feign weakness while the offensive is being prepared. We cannot know which scenario is most likely. There are reports of Ukrainian desertions and low morale, but such information has been disseminated before to mislead the Russians. We do know that Trump, who has never been a Ukrainian stalwart (and Vice President Vance, who has consistently opposed aiding Ukraine), has maintained a long and generally congenial relationship with Putin. This played out in their Alaska meeting with Trump all but abandoning Ukraine and relegating the United States to the sidelines. Zelenskyy will respond as he must based upon the scenarios above, but in the end, our NATO allies, in concert with the Ukrainian Army, will prove to be the critical entities confronting Putin. See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).Twitter: @douglas_cohn© 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, IncDistributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
CandC-16-August-2025-The-Zelenskyy-Options.docx