Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 21, 2023
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
He could win
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
          WASHINGTON — The word “unprecedented” looms large as the 2024 primary contest gets underway with a criminally indicted former president the leading contender for the Republican nomination. How could this happen? Is the impossible, a second Donald Trump presidency, possible? The just-released and highly respected Harvard-Harris poll says it is, with Trump having a 45-40 percent advantage over President Joe Biden. This includes a spread of 45-27 percent of Independents breaking for Trump.
          Meanwhile, inflation is down, job creation is at a record high, and there is reason to be optimistic about the war in Ukraine. But let us assume the opposites are true in 2024.
          Also assume that Trump, facing multiple indictments, could be criminally convicted while he’s running for president and refuses to step aside. No law would prevent his election. And if elected, he could use the 25th Amendment (the same amendment some of his Cabinet considered to utilize for his removal following the 2021 insurrection) to temporarily turn the presidency over to his vice president who would then pardon him.
          Defying the law has become the central strategy of his campaign. According to him, he’s running so his supporters don’t have to. He’s taking the slings and arrows from the judicial system that would otherwise be aimed at his followers.
          It’s a nonsensical defense but by Trumpian standards it’s working. He is raising lots of money from voters he turned into dupes. They are even cheering at the prospect of having a convicted felon as the standard bearer for the Republican Party.
          Reasonable Republicans don’t want to risk alienating Trump’s voters, so they keep their anxieties about their flawed leader to themselves. Even those who outright condemn Trump’s behavior, like his former Attorney General, William Barr, say that if he’s the GOP nominee, they would help him defeat President Biden.
          Biden likes to say voters shouldn’t compare him to the almighty, but to the alternative. Well, that sentiment can be turned on its head and used by Trump’s critics to justify supporting Trump despite all they know and have observed about him.
          From their perspective, Biden’s tax the rich and social welfare policies would justify backing his opponent, even if that opponent is a convicted felon.
          Then there is the electoral college imbalance. There are millions of so-called excess votes in mega states like California and New York while battleground states are home to more voters without college degrees who buy into Trump’s grievances.
          A master manipulator, Trump is pulling in dollars from voters who believe he is a victim of a conspiracy generated by the Democrats to keep him out of the White House.
          Democrats do want to keep him out of the White House, and they are using the legitimate tools of government to prosecute Trump for alleged crimes committed. He is not a victim. He’s a man with autocratic tendencies and a suspiciously close relationship with Russian President Putin. He played it loose with America’s classified documents and potentially the country’s national security secrets.
          On the other hand, President Richard Nixon would not have resigned under threat of impeachment had it not been for a smoking gun: the White House tapes. Conversely, in the absence of smoking guns, Trump’s indictments and trials may result in acquittals, events that will boost his presidential chances with him claiming his opponent in the White House was using the legal system for political purposes.
          It could happen. He could win.
 
          Eleanor Clift’s latest book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2023 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
          Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND