Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 26 October 2024
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
              The Great Republican Schism
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – Whatever the outcome of the presidential race, Republicans are more likely than not to control the U.S. Senate. Or is there another unusual scenario in the wings?
It is never wise to give up on Democrat Jon Tester, running for his third term in Montana. But being born and raised in the state may not be enough to fend off wealthy outsider Tim Sheehy, a Navy Seal who moved to Montana and founded an aerial firefighting company.
Sheehy has spent more than $1.6 million of his own money to challenge Tester, and a Sheehy win would flip the seat from blue to red just as Republican Governor Jim Justice is poised to make the West Virginia Senate seat as red as his state after Democrat Joe Manchin retired rather than face almost certain defeat.
These two races alone would boost the Republicans from 49 seats to 51, giving the GOP control of the Senate.
But that is not the end of the story.
In 2020, Maine Republican Susan Collins was the only Republican senator in a competitive election who won in a state carried by Joe Biden. That made her a unicorn, a prized independent whose vote is courted by both parties.
She has said she will not vote for Trump, and that she will cast a write-in ballot for Nikki Haley.
Alaska Senator Murkowski is another Republican who is out of lockstep with her party.
Independence is highly prized and often rewarded by voters. Democrats are looking toward Ohio where Sherrod Brown is running for his fourth term. If it were not a presidential year with Trump at the top of the ticket in a state that has gone ruby red, Brown would be a shoo-in against Bernie Moreno, a wealthy car dealer.
He has a long list of accomplishments over two decades representing the interests of working people in Ohio, and if he wins despite Trump carrying his state by a big margin, he will receive the Susan Collins unicorn award.
In the end, whichever party ends up winning the White House, the Republican caucus will reflect the schism in the GOP that is playing out across the country. In the closing weeks of the campaign, Vice President Harris is courting moderate Republican voters who have had enough of former President Trump and his bombastic rhetoric.
She campaigned last week with former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who predicted that millions of Republican women like herself will vote their conscience and support Harris.
The presidential race is the most divided we have seen in recent memory, and the schism in the Republican Party, win or lose the White House, will be played out in the Republican Senate caucus.
Senate leader Mitch McConnell will be stepping away from leadership, and whoever replaces him will be tasked with advancing the MAGA agenda – or not.
Harris has pledged to be the president of all the people, and to work across the aisle, not a challenging task when addressing a deeply divided Republican Party that may be Trump-MAGA-controlled going into the election and in utter disarray following it.
              So, keep your eyes on Collins, Murkowski, and their like-minded anti-MAGA colleagues as they form an informal coalition with the Senate Democrats.
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
          Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND