Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 26 May 2025
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
When Democrats say “Thank you, Mr. President”
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – Virginia’s status as a bellwether is unrivaled. As the only state holding a gubernatorial election in the off year, all eyes are on the results as an indication of what is likely to happen in next year’s midterms.
Democrats expect to win, and that could signal the party’s comeback. Abigail Spanberger, a Virginia Democrat who gave up her seat in Congress to run for governor, is well-positioned to win thanks to President Trump.
Republicans in the state are divided, and federal workers from Virginia who once accounted for 140,000 jobs, are suffering from the Trump and Elon Musk chainsaw approach to reducing many of those positions.
As a result, Spanberger, a highly regarded former CIA official, is favored to turn purple Virginia blue, dashing Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s hopes of doing the opposite, not to mention his once-promising presidential aspirations.
Jumping to the national level, the party holding the White House generally loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats only need three seats to regain control of the House.
With the House within reach, some Democratic optimists think winning the Senate is possible given the level of voter discontent becoming evident in the wake of Trump’s up-and-down tariffs and his apparently drunken rants, which, of course, is not the cause. He does not drink.
In the Senate, Democrats and Independents hold 47 seats while Republicans have 51, not a big spread in a 100-seat legislative body, but still a challenge.
The two most likely Republican seats Democrats could flip are those held by Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Why? Collins is a Republican running in a state that has voted Democratic in the last nine elections. She has served five terms and is now running for her sixth term. She has voted against some of Trump’s nominees and is one of the rare Republicans willing to take on the president, although she has earned the sarcasm: She’s only there when you don’t need her. Still, she has beaten back well-funded challengers. Can she do it again?
In North Carolina, a state teetering between purple and blue, Tillis, like Collins, has taken some anti-Trump positions that have earned him the wrath of home-state Republicans. But alienating his base while failing to satisfy the independents does not offer a likely pathway to success.
To flip four Senate seats requires more imagination and optimism. Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, a veteran herself, had the temerity to question Fox News host Pete Hegseth’s credentials to be Secretary of Defense. Trump allies made her life miserable for questioning Hegseth, and after much groveling and public humiliation, she reversed course and became one of Hegseth’s most fervent backers. It was not pretty, and Ernst may well pay a price for speaking out in the first place and caving in the second place.
In Nebraska, former Union leader Dan Osborn, running as an Independent, was the election night surprise in 2024 when he came close to taking down the state’s Republican senator. He may try again against the state’s other Republican senator. A preview was offered in Omaha when voters elected Democrat John Ewing Jr. to be the city’s first Black mayor. He defeated a three-term Republican mayor in what The New Republic called “the Trump effect.”
Lastly, Democrat Sherrod Brown has not ruled out running for the Senate in Ohio after losing his seat last year to Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown was the only statewide elected Democrat in the state, and his name recognition after a long career could propel him to victory over the state’s other Republican senator, John Husted, a former lieutenant governor appointed to fill out the remainder of former Senator, now Vice President, JD Vance’s seat.
 In the end, these races amount to a four-seat gamble, but then the odds look good. Trump’s polls are down. Voters do not like Elon Musk. Trump’s incoherent, autocratic rants and his North Korea-style Cabinet meetings are embarrassing. Then, there will be the June 14th military parade honoring the Army’s 250th anniversary, which Trump is planning to hijack for his birthday celebration.
What can Democrats say other than “Thank you, Mr. President?”
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
              Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
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END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND