Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2 May 2026
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column, Founded 1932
The Senate is now in play
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – Polls show the electorate moving away from President Trump and voters are not all that keen on Democrats. Rising gas prices and a war nobody wanted has had the biggest impact on Independents.
Their support for Trump has cratered. It means they are ready to overcome their general dislike of Democrats and mainstream Republicans to vote against Trump and his agenda even though he is not on the ballot.
They recognize that his version of the party is enabling policies they do not like from armed ICE agents in their neighborhoods to a lavish ballroom in Washington that two-thirds of the public oppose.
Winning control of the Senate until recently was out of reach for the Democrats. Now it seems possible.
Democrats need to pick up four seats while holding on to seats in Georgia and Michigan.
Thanks to Trump’s woes with the war and the economy, this narrow path is widening to include North Carolina, and Maine as likely pickups and Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa as potential pickups.
Adding to the Democrats chance is a surge in support for Independent candidates in Nebraska and Montana that if either of them won would almost certainly caucus with the Democrats, boosting the party’s control.
Vice President Kamala Harris ran on an anti-Trump message in 2024, and it did not work. All we can say is that was before Trump took office for a second term and we saw how truly reactionary he is in his policies, dismantling federal agencies and shutting down press freedoms. He said Harris would start a war and he would not. He did. He said gas prices would fall below two dollars a gallon if he was elected. They went over four dollars.
The shift is evident in Ohio, where the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan chronicler of political races, moved the Senate race from leans Republican to a tossup. Sherrod Brown, the last statewide elected Democrat in the red state, lost his Senate seat in 2024 and is attempting a comeback. He is challenging Senator Jon Husted, the former Ohio lieutenant governor who was appointed by the governor to serve out the remainder of J.D. Vance’s term.
In Maine, where Democrats aim to flip a seat, Governor Janet Mills suspended her Senate race on Thursday, bowing to the reality that her opponent, Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no political experience was outrunning and outspending her. Democrats in the state are excited about Platner as the voice of the people and are betting that he has the moxie to defeat Republican Susan Collins, who is running for her sixth six-year term. She is viewed as the bipartisan-leaning senator who is always there when you do not need her.
Then there is Texas, where a state senator, James Talarico, has charmed the country with his love your neighbor ecumenical appeals to the voters. He raised a record $26 million in the first three months of this year. He will face Texas Senator John Cornyn or the controversial Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in November.
Democrats have had their hearts broken and their wallets busted in Texas before only to have the GOP prevail, but this election could be different. Texas is not ruby red anymore. It has become a destination state with people eyeing its expanse and low taxes. People are moving there from California, and young people with more progressive views see the state as the next frontier.
Independent candidates running in Nebraska and Montana add another twist to the Senate map. Dan Osborn, a Navy vet, union leader and mechanic, qualifies as a prairie populist, a moniker he embraces. He came close to pulling off an upset in 2024 and now he is back with an even bolder campaign against billionaire GOP Senator Pete Ricketts, an exemplar of what is wrong when the moneyed class drives politics.
In Montana, a dream candidate, Seth Bodnar, Iraq veteran, Green Beret and former president of the University of Montana, jumped into the senate race when the Republican, Steve Daines, abruptly resigned. In a state where Republicans control everything, and Democrats are pretty much despised, Bodnar is running as an Independent.
The challenge for Democrats is to keep their eye on the prize in these varied locales. What works in Maine will not work in Ohio. What works in Ohio will not work in Texas. It is not one size fits all in these marquee races. To pull off a come from behind victory for Senate control will take a degree of unity that independent-minded Democrats are not known for.
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
© 2026 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc
Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND