February 8, 2025

A Primer for Failure

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 8 December 2024
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
              A primer for failure
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – “Men are so simple and yield so readily to the desires of the moment that he who will trick will always find another who will suffer to be tricked.” – Niccolo Machiavelli
Thus the mantra of dictators and would-be dictators, but Machiavelli overstated the case because tricks eventually play out as Syria’s deposed dictator Bashar al-Assad and South Korea’s wanna-be dictator President Yoon Suk Yeol have discovered.
Assad believed he was fooling his people until it turned out he was fooling himself because his power base consisted of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah rather than the Syrian people.
Likewise, Yoon declared martial law by attempting to convince his countrymen that those who opposed him were going soft on the threat from Communist North Korea. He assumed his own party and the military were with him. They were not, and he quickly rescinded his declaration of martial law, though his party refused to impeach him.
In the end, he established a primer for failure. Police and prosecutors had raided the homes and workplaces of journalists for allegedly spreading “fake news,” a line from President-elect Donald Trump’s playbook.
What Yoon did not count on was the immediate pushback from a coalition of opposition groups and the public. As the military surrounded the Parliament building, lawmakers scaled walls and crawled through windows to cast their votes against martial law – and the army never fired a shot.
It turns out that the South Korean general tapped by Yoon to carry out his order for martial law later told lawmakers he only learned of the order when Yoon announced it on television.
This is a cautionary tale for the U.S. president-elect, who has openly talked about his regard for martial law should it become necessary to calm an internal disturbance. He was frustrated during his first term that he could not do more to counter protests over George Floyd, an unarmed Black man killed at the hands of over-zealous police.
Various insider accounts of the Trump White House from 2017 to 2021 document Trump’s wish to impose martial law as a shortcut to establishing law and order.
The South Korean president made several mistakes that should be instructive to Trump.
He over-promised, a familiar malady. Yoon was elected on a wave of discontent about the economy, scandals, and gender wars. He vowed to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, which he said treats men “like potential sex criminals.”
Most importantly, he misread the military and the depth of support he could count on. Aside from the one general cited who did not sound all that committed to the cause, Yoon evidently did not dig deep into the ranks of the country’s military and had virtually no hold on them.  After all, generals are not the ones firing the rifles.
The attempted takeover by Yoon was a mistake of enormous magnitude in a country where democracy is relatively new, and memories of military dictatorships are still fresh.
Meanwhile, back in America, Trump continues his efforts to put in place a Cabinet consisting of those who will do his bidding no matter what. He wants to disrupt a government that he says no longer serves the people.
Some of his more unorthodox picks will get confirmed, but a coalition of at least four Republicans (the number necessary to join with Democrats to derail a Cabinet appointment) in the Senate should give greater scrutiny to the officials Trump wants to task with our national security. These include the Secretary of Defense, Director of Homeland Security, Director of National Intelligence, and the FBI for which Trump has nominated individuals whose sole qualification is fealty.
         So, if Trump truly is fascistically inclined, he should consider the underlying fallacies of Machiavelli’s mantra, Assad’s self-delusion, and Yoon’s failure to ensure in-depth fealty.
Mr. Trump, they have shown you the way – the wrong way.
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
          Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND

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