February 8, 2025

Promises Unbound

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 13 December 2024
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
              Promises Unbound
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – Donald Trump won a second turn at the presidency on the strength of promises made, some old, some new, some improbable, and many impossible. They span economic and social policy to criminal justice and foreign entanglements.
What they have in common is they are promises unbound to reality. But just like the wall he was going to build that Mexico would pay for, he will settle for far less than his bombastic rhetoric implies.
One, mass deportation: He says he will deport fifteen to twenty million people who are here illegally, and his border czar is scouting land in Texas for deportation camps. Tough talk, but President Obama deported more people when he was in the White House than Trump did as president. Truth is, the business community depends on cheap migrant labor, and all those billionaires around Trump will not let him kill the economic golden goose. The immigrants are here because the jobs are here, so, he is more likely to grant amnesty (just as Ronald Reagan did in 1986) than send them packing.
Two, 25 percent tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, and 60 percent on goods from China: Economics 101 says tariffs fuel inflation and consumers bear the burden. After slamming the Biden administration on the economy, the last thing Trump wants to do is ignite inflation. His tariff gambit is mostly a bluff to gain foreign concessions on trade, and his Treasury Secretary-designate, Scott Bessent, a denizen of Wall Street, is certain to give him a primer on the subject.
Three, pardoning 1/6 insurrectionists: Trump told Time Magazine he will pardon “most” of those accused of storming the Capitol beginning on his first day in office. He is vague about whether those charged with violent acts might be included. A Monmouth University poll just released found 61 percent of those polled disapproved of Trump pardoning people who were convicted of attacking the Capitol. In the end, he will have a tough time convincing even his MAGA followers that pardoning people who attacked officers and desecrated the Capitol is a good idea. Other of his threats, such as jailing all the 1/6 congressional committee members is not even worthy of comment.
Four, lower taxes: Trump will extend tax cuts for the rich but other promises to lower taxes and enact no taxes on tips and overtime (after all, income is income) will collide with budget reality and a razor-thin margin in the House, which has the power of the purse. The gap between the rich and everyone else has never been wider, so he will have a difficult time explaining his odd priorities to his newfound constituency of blue-collar workers.
Five, dropping out of NATO: Trump’s talk of leaving the 75-year-old Western alliance unnerves Republicans and Democrats alike, and any move like that would have to be sanctioned by the U.S. Senate. It will not happen, but Trump could starve the alliance and draw down U.S. troops, which is bad enough. Only the isolationist wing (the inheritors of those who failed to wake up until Pearl Harbor was attacked in 1941) of his party would approve.
              In all this we may know what he cannot do but are left to merely await with trepidation what he might do.
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
          Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *