Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2 August 2024
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
              Confronting the architect and arsenal of terrorism
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – The U.S. is massing naval and air forces as well as boots-on-the-ground air-defense forces to deter Iranian and Iranian-backed Hezbollah (from Lebanon) and Houthi (from Yemen) terrorist attacks against Israel – Iran’s Hamas surrogates in Gaza having already been neutralized.
              Iran’s stated objective is to destroy Israel, which is as irrational as it is impossible. Israel’s objective is survival, an obviously rational position. But U.S. objectives are more nuanced: to maintain stability in the oil-rich Middle East and to support Israel, not only the result of moral ties, but also because it is the only true democracy and committed ally in the region and therefore a surrogate for U.S. interests.
In the near-term assassination retribution may prove to be the arena of choice. Iran’s leadership has vowed to avenge the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil. So, in this scenario Iran and Israel would proceed to a war of hit-squad assassinations although escalation into larger scale actions would likely ensue.
              In April Iran launched a massive drone and missile attack against Israel, which was defeated by Israel’s Iron Dome with assistance from the U.S., UK, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE under a coalition code-named Iron Shield. Israel suffered no fatalities.
              Israel responded with limited strikes against Iran, the objective being to demonstrate its ability to pierce Iranian defenses rather than inflict Iranian casualties.
              These benign events must have been viewed by all sides as probing attacks that revealed defense weaknesses. As such, an Iranian attack now – using larger swarm tactics sufficient enough to overwhelm Israeli defenses – would prove to be anything but benign, but to what end? With what objective?
              If Iran succeeds in striking Israeli civilian centers, the regional calculus will have changed. Already, Iran has encouraged Hezbollah to do just that, a change from Hezbollah’s previous concentration on military sites.
              And if Iran succeeds in inflicting significant or possibly massive casualties on Israel, a reconstituted Iron Shield coalition will face a dilemma but be compelled to act. It cannot and should not hit Iranian civilian centers. Israel already made that mistake in Gaza where Palestinian civilian deaths have far exceeded Hamas casualties.
              Further, if allied intelligence sources reveal that an Iranian attack is imminent, Desert Shield forces will be reconstituted and strike preemptively as Israel did in the 1967 Six-Day War.
              In short, a massive Iranian attack would lack a coherent objective. It would not destroy Israel, but instead bring down upon itself a massive retaliation that could possibly decapitate Iran’s leadership.
              Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been in power since 1989, and his religious-based decision-making often defies normal geo-political logic. Enter Masoud Pezeshkian who was elected president on July 28. A moderate, his election was unexpected, and although final decision-making remains in the hands of Khamenei, Pezeshkian may prove to have more influence and power than is known. A cardiac surgeon, rather than a religious leader, he has often criticized the Iranian government and vowed to improve relations with the United States.
              This complex leadership structure in Iran may offer a political opening that an allied military strike would undermine. Such a political opening could end up delinking Iran from Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis while simultaneously putting nuclear disarmament back on the table.
              In this morass of ill-defined objectives, consequences must be given the greatest weight, and absolutes will prevail. Specifically, Israel will survive, and Iran will be compelled one way or another to cease its operations as the architect and arsenal of terrorism.
 
          See Eleanor Clift’s latest book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
          Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND