Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 31 May 2026
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column, Founded 1932
The shrinking Trump coalition
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – Republicans make up 28 percent of the population, and MAGA Republicans are 43 percent of them at 12 percent of the population. Right-leaning Independents have provided another 15 percent. However, thanks to President Trump’s bizarre behavior and policies all of these percentages are shrinking. And what did Trump do? He prioritized a personal vendetta over the good of his party by throwing Sen. John Cornyn, a 20-year-plus veteran of the Senate, under the bus, an error that will cost Trump dearly in the last two years of his presidency.
Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Trump just put at risk one of those seats by endorsing the scandal ridden Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over Cornyn, whose loyalty he questions.
Cornyn voted with Trump over 90 percent of the time, but Trump does not allow for any lapses. Last year, the San Antonio Current described Cornyn as “usually a card-carrying member of the president’s Brown Nose Club” when he defied Trump’s wishes and defended the Biden-era CHIPS and Sciences Act. That was not Cornyn’s only transgression. Trump did not like that he was slow to endorse him in 2024.
So, Trump gets to feel good about bringing down the career of a 74-year-old senator who rose to leadership positions, is a prodigious fundraiser, and with his chiseled jaw and white hair, looks straight out of central casting.
The Senate is a clubby place, and Cornyn is popular among his colleagues in both parties. Majority Leader John Thune is not happy about losing three Republican stalwarts who Trump pushed out.
Before Cornyn, there was Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, defeated by a Trump-endorsed candidate in the primary. And before Cassidy, there was North Carolina Thom Tillis, who decided not to run again after it was made clear a Trump-endorsed candidate would challenge him.
Trump’s vindictive moves have scrambled the odds for which party might hold the majority after the 2026 midterms. Tillis’ seat is up for grabs now in North Carolina with former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper favored to win. And in Texas, everybody but the MAGA base is cringing at the thought of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton winning a Senate seat.
The GOP blew a hundred million on the primary, now they will have to spend twice that to get Paxton across the finish line. And that will be money they could spend on vulnerable incumbents like Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, who tops the list for Democrats as a key pickup.
“The Left has made Texas their top target,” Thune said in a fundraising appeal for Cornyn. “They know if they can defeat John, they flip the Senate and stop President Trump's agenda cold.”
Trump wants absolute loyalty, but he will turn like a viper on anyone who crosses him. There is a lot an angry senator or two or three can do to bollix up the works when there are Cabinet level positions to fill and judges to confirm.
The War Powers Resolution will be back, and GOP opposition will be hard to enforce given the poisonous political atmosphere and the ongoing nature of Trump’s entanglement in a war of choice with Iran.
Lawmakers left Washington early for the Memorial Day recess, leaving behind Trump’s priorities – funding for ICE and a billion dollars for ballroom construction now packaged as necessary for national security.
Trump’s priorities are out of sync with his party and with where the voters are. And that means Democrats have a fighting chance to win in Texas against the poster boy for scandal. Paxton was impeached and acquitted by the Texas Senate, much like Trump. And like Trump, Paxton is a foul-mouthed bully.
Even so, there is only one Trump. Because Trump gets away with pushing the boundaries of language and ethical behavior, does not mean Paxton will ride to victory as Trump’s mini me. James Talarico, a Texas state senator and Presbyterian seminarian, provides a clear contrast, and a whole lot of regret for the GOP.
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
© 2026 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc
Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND