Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 17 May 2026
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column, Founded 1932
All bets are on Xi
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON –After intensive bombing, 70 percent of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact, and their nuclear material is safely secured under the rubble. Very little is obliterated as Trump claimed it was after last June’s initial bombing of Iran.
So, what does he do now? He is looking at some poor options:
One, he can restart the bombing campaign, but why? It did not work, proving once again you cannot get regime change with an air campaign alone.
Two, he can order the Marines to take Kharg Island, which houses Iranian oil pipeline infrastructure and port facilities for deep-water oil tankers, but that is putting boots on the ground, and it is way more involved than Trump wants to be. The only advantage would be that Iran is not going to fire missiles at its own facilities.
Three, he could have gone hat in hand, metaphorically speaking, to President Xi Jinping of China and got him to help by applying pressure to Iran, a country with which China is aligned, to open the Strait of Hormuz.
This third option would have been the best if Xi saw it in his country’s best interest to cooperate in that way with the leader of a rival superpower. China relies on oil from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz to keep its economy going, so his country cannot hang on indefinitely with the shutdown of the critical waterway.
We will know soon enough whether Xi will intervene. If he does, it would be a win-win for the two leaders. If he chooses not to weigh in, it would be a setback for Trump, who has boxed himself in. However, Iran did just allow 30 ships to pass through the strait, including several bound for China.
There is a fourth option, it is called cut and run, and it is the most likely course for Trump to take with or without Xi’s nod of approval. If Trump has given up on more bombing and does not want to commit American ground forces, and he wants out of a war that was supposed to be over weeks ago, it is a valid exit.
Trump won’t like the critical press that would almost certainly follow such a move. The German chancellor has already declared America “humiliated” by a smaller power because of the way Iran has managed to survive and stave off U.S. and Israeli attacks.
Finally, there is a fifth option, the one which Trump has repeatedly rejected because he refused to be compared favorably to President Obama, whom Trump alleges in a Truth Social post is a traitor and should be in jail. The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) negotiated by Obama in 2012 kept a lid on Iran’s nuclear program until Trump declared it void during his first term as president.
Iran had agreed to a 15-year moratorium on its nuclear ambitions, and Trump said that was not enough. He wants a “never” limit for Iran’s nuclear program but might settle for a 20-year moratorium according to his negotiators, realtor Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Whichever course Trump chooses – or is chosen for him – Xi has the upper hand. It is the first time China is more highly regarded by other nations than the America Trump is representing to the world. Compared to Trump who is chaos personified, the Chinese leader projects steady leadership and a sense that he has his goals and strategy all mapped out.
Xi has his problems too, a slowing economy and a commitment to re-integrate Taiwan into the whole of China. He would like Trump to hold off on fulfilling a $14 billion arms package the administration approved in December, but that would be a deal with the devil, trading Taiwan for a face-saving Iran exit.
In the end, Xi undoubtedly has little regard for Trump. He plays him accordingly, and in this age of Prediction Market betting, all bets are on Xi.
 
See Eleanor Clift’s book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
© 2026 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc
Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND