Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 8 July 2024
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
An exercise in calculated speculation
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON — Whitmer/Beshears or Beshear/Whitmer may well emerge as the Democratic dream ticket. Gretchen Whitmer is the popular twice-elected governor of critical Midwest swing state Michigan, and Andy Beshear is the dark horse candidate, the unlikely twice-elected governor of deep-red Kentucky. She is 52; he is 46 – marked contrasts to the elderly Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
But how could this come to pass? President Joe Biden has served well, and it clearly is time for him to pass the torch. He cannot remain as the Democratic nominee when declining poll numbers and increasing members of his own party are pleading with him to recognize that the most important and most demanding job in world has taken its toll on him.
He has always been a patriot, placing country above self, and his failure to now do so can only be attributed to his inability to recognize his diminished faculties. The same cannot be said for his close friends, aides, and family.
It is now inconceivable that he will continue to run for the presidency, and when he finally does bow out, all eyes will be on replacements waiting in the wings. Until then, none of them can say or do anything but stand in support of Biden. But the moment he steps aside, the aspirants will quickly seek to fill the void.
With this in mind, Democratic leaders, especially in Congress and state houses, may believe they will control the reins. They will not.
They who would be president will by-and-large bypass those leaders and reach out to the 3,933 delegates pledged to Biden and to the 739 unpledged, unelected superdelegates. True, the superdelegates are primarily Democratic leaders, but they cannot vote on the first ballot at the convention.
What, then, is the makeup of these regular delegates? It may be assumed they are mostly in the mold of Biden, who has run as a politically moderate friend of working men and women.
So, if the nomination falls to the convention to decide, the center is likely to hold, and that center ground is occupied by Whitmer and Beshear.
Yes, there already is a move to turn to Vice President Kamal Harris, but her poll number are nearly as low as Biden’s. Then there is Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, but he comes with much budget, homeless, and other baggage, not to mention that deep-blue California is already in the bag for Democrats.
On the other side of the aisle, a Trump-Haley ticket, if it were to materialize, would prove competitive with former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley on board to take some of the debilitating edges off of her running mate.
In the end, for Democrats and Republicans alike, this is not a venture into impossible dreams, but rather an exercise in calculated speculation. In this vein, the odds are better that someone other than Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee, and someone unexpected is going to be Trump’s running mate.
 
          See Eleanor Clift’s latest book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
          Distributed by U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND