Washington Merry-Go-Round

IMMEDIATE RELEASE 18 July 2024
WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND
Today’s Events in Historical Perspective
America’s Longest-Running Column Founded 1932
Four scenarios for an unconventional Democratic convention
By Douglas Cohn and Eleanor Clift         
 
WASHINGTON – These are unprecedented times in American presidential politics. An obviously diminished President Biden is recovering from Covid while former President Trump, fresh off a courtroom conviction and near assassination, is basking in the adoration of his party’s base. Polls show Trump leading in the critical swing states, and Democratic party elders are telling Biden he cannot win in November and should step aside and allow the baton to be passed to his vice-president or another Democrat.
If Democrats are going to change the trajectory that has party leaders like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Minority House Leader Hakeem Jeffries warning Biden he is on a losing trajectory, these are the alternate scenarios we see unfolding:
1) Biden continues to dig in as the nominee, reminding skeptics he was right in 2020 and 2022 when fellow Democrats discounted him. He won the presidency and held back the GOP’s red wave, and he can do it again. If Biden stays in the race, he wins the nomination in Chicago in mid-August. There might be a mini revolt, but not enough to dissuade him. 
The Democratic base will vote for anybody against Trump, including a diminished Biden, but an election that becomes a referendum on Biden’s health and age is not a winner for Democrats.
2) The old-fashioned way, let democracy rule on the Convention floor.
Biden pulls out, and several candidates, mainly governors, will indicate their interest in the nomination. These include California Governor Newsom, Illinois Governor Pritzker, Kentucky Governor Beshear, Michigan Governor Whitmer and Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro. One cable news commentator suggested Whitmer and Shapiro run as a ticket to win their home states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, locking down two of the three must-win swing states.
The upside to this scenario is that it would create much needed excitement among Democrats who are yearning for a next generation leader. The downside is that it would be a free-for-all.
3) Biden steps aside and endorses Vice President Kamala Harris. That would be the most seamless transfer of power. The DNC leadership would back Harris, and it would be a done deal.
There is already a widespread assumption that this is likely. The Trump-Vance campaign rebuffed Harris’ invitation to J.D. Vance to accept a CBS invitation to debate next month on the grounds that the Democratic ticket is not yet settled, and that Harris could be running for president.
              The downside here is that Harris is polling below the other likely contenders.
4) Convene what we are calling a “mini primary.” On August 1, the DNC is holding a virtual roll call of delegates. President Biden’s supporters envisioned the event to lock down those delegates, who are to vote “in good conscience” for the president, but if he steps aside, it effectively would become a Democratic national primary.
Such a mini primary on August 1 would allow the delegates to declare their preferences and cast non-binding votes for the candidates of their choice, creating an opportunity to winnow the number of possible nominees to Harris and perhaps two or three others. The also-rans would drop out and it would be left for the Convention to meet the moment in this unconventional year.
 
          See Eleanor Clift’s latest book Selecting a President, and Douglas Cohn’s latest books The President’s First Year: The Only School for Presidents Is the Presidency and World War 4: Nine Scenarios (endorsed by seven flag officers).
          Twitter:  @douglas_cohn
          © 2024 U.S. News Syndicate, Inc.
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END WASHINGTON MERRY-GO-ROUND